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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.