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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.