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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd