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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still