Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.